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BLOG
SPRINT · RISK · 6 MIN READ
Eight sprint risk signals to watch every week.
Detect delivery risk one or two sprints earlier. The signals below are mid-sprint, not retro-only — by the time the retro flags them, the sprint is already gone.
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SIG
The eight signals.
- 01 · Scope added mid-sprintNEW WORK ITEMS / SPRINT
- 02 · Cycle-time outliersP95 / MEDIAN RATIO > 4×
- 03 · WIP cap breachACTIVE COUNT > CAP, >1 DAY
- 04 · Stale "in progress"NO TRANSITION > 4 DAYS
- 05 · Bug-fix work shareRISING TREND OVER 3 SPRINTS
- 06 · Carryover ratioNOT-DONE / COMMITTED > 25%
- 07 · Story-point debate timePLANNING DURATION TREND
- 08 · Single-owner concentration50% OF SP TO 1 ENGINEER
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USE
How to use them.
Pick a weekly 30-minute slot mid-sprint. Surface the eight signals on a single page. Discuss only the ones that crossed a threshold this week.
Critical: pair every flagged signal with an action and an owner — even if the action is "we accept this risk and continue." A signal without a decision becomes background noise within three sprints.
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FALSE
Common false positives.
One-off cycle-time spikes from genuinely big work items. Compare against the team's own distribution, not absolute hours.
Carryover during holidays. Discount sprints with major calendar gaps; otherwise you'll over-react in February to December's data.
Single-owner concentration on early-stage products. Sometimes correct — three people can't review the same database schema design. Use it to ask the question, not to enforce a rule.
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